Impact on Advocacy
A minority government will require renewed focus on relationship-building with both the Government and Opposition in order to advance advocacy efforts. That is especially true given that minorities rarely last the full four years – meaning the Government and Opposition Parties will not be focused on long-term priorities. Also, with the resurgent Bloc, consideration of how an issue may impact Quebec will need to be considered in all Federal advocacy efforts in this Parliament.
Additional attention must now be paid to House of Commons Committees, as they will significantly impact legislation and policy direction for the Government, given the Opposition majority on all Committees. Private Members’ Bills will also take on additional prominence in a minority Parliament.
The Senate, which has a majority of Senators who are not aligned with any caucus, will also require significant attention in order to advance issues. Expect the Senate to continue to flex its muscle as more than just a house of sober second thought. We expect non-Conservative Senators from Alberta and Saskatchewan (like Senators Grant Mitchell, Paula Simons, and Marty Klein) to take on a renewed importance as conduits to Ministers.
Looking Ahead
The immediate test for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party will be to form a new Cabinet that can govern in this minority situation. The appointment of a new Cabinet may occur as early as next week.
While it is unclear what changes will be made to the Cabinet, those changes will need to consider the departure of the two Ministers who were defeated last night – Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale from Saskatchewan and Natural Resources Minister Amarjeet Sohi from Alberta.
Newly-elected MPs who may be expected to be appointed to Cabinet include Adam van Koeverden, who defeated former Harper Minister Lisa Raitt, former Ontario Health Minister Helena Jaczek, and noted Quebec environmentalist Steven Guilbeault.
The Government will most likely return to the House before Christmas with a Speech from the Throne outlining priorities for the coming mandate. The Government may also take an opportunity to present a Fall Economic Statement to set the context for Budget 2020.
Committee memberships and priorities may not become clear until after the House returns in January.