The final few days of the 2019 federal election campaign:
By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates
With only a few days to go in the federal election campaign, neither of the two front running parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, have been able to gain any significant traction during the campaign. It has been the secondary parties, particularly the NDP and the Bloc in Quebec that have generated limited momentum. As a result, the election remains a toss-up between the Conservatives and the Liberals, with a minority Government virtually a certainty. The suburbs of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are likely to determine the ultimate outcome of the election.
Let’s review the parties:
Maxine Bernier’s new People’s Party of Canada (PPC), established in the last 12 months, has failed to catch on in any meaningful way. Despite fielding candidates in all ridings, it is unlikely they will elect even a single MP. In fact, they are barely competitive in less than 10 ridings and barely a blip on the data screen in the rest (there are 338 ridings in Canada).
The Green Party has also failed to catch on among voters across the country. With Elizabeth May continuing as leader, now for 13 years, the Party has tried to mount its first national campaign. However, their lack of resources and experience has really left them on the outside looking in and in fact during the course of the campaign they are losing support across the country. If they have any growth, it will come from Vancouver Island, the same area that has elected May since 2011. However, at most the Greens may elect 3 or 4 MP’s and continue to have a limited role in Parliament and no official party status in the House of Commons. They desperately need a change in leadership to move their party to the next level.
The Bloc Quebecois Party – the separatist party that is only running candidates in the 78 Quebec ridings – is showing some strength during the campaign, especially in the last two weeks where their numbers have moved quite significantly. Their new leader, Yves-Francois Blanchet has performed well in the 2 national debates. Voters in Quebec have not been inspired by either the Conservatives or the Liberals and the Bloc are benefitting from that. Among the issues important to Quebecers is Bill 21 which formally bans teachers, police officers, judges and many others from wearing items like hijabs, turbans, kippas, and crucifixes in the course of their duties. The Bloc maintains this is a provincial issue and should not be discussed at the federal level. The other parties all seem to agree and are quite happy not having to deal with it. Voters don’t see separatism as a threat at this point, so Quebec voters appear to be parking their votes with the Bloc, at least for this election. Most polls show the Bloc positioned to pick up significant seats in the election and in fact in some scenarios they could hold the balance of power in Parliament, simply from their renewed strength in Quebec.
Following his election as leader, the NDP struggled under Jagmeet Singh’s leadership. However, the Party and Singh have seen a surge in the polls over the past 2 weeks. His thoughtful response to the Trudeau “blackface” revelation started the rise coupled with a general agreement that he performed well in the English language debate. This has seen NDP support climb from 10 to almost 20 per cent in some public opinion polls. While Singh is expected to lose seats in Quebec, he appears to have stopped the bleeding and is expected to secure seats in Ontario and British Columbia that were previously out of reach. The NDP could also split the progressive vote in a number of ridings they do not win, which would benefit the Conservatives. Another scenario could see Singh and the NDP holding the balance of power in a minority Parliament where Singh has already stated he would never prop up the Conservatives.
The Conservatives have simply failed to catch on. In what seems to be a dull almost motionless campaign for the Tories, they have not engaged the average voter. They only released their costed platform on October 11, so it’s impact will only be reflected in the polls now. With a focus on balancing the budget and spending within their means, the platform appears to have done little to move any numbers. Conservative leader Andrew Scheer also had to overcome a bad few days leading into the Thanksgiving weekend with a series of self-inflicted wounds by not properly disclosing his religious beliefs nor his dual citizenship with the United States. Now, with just a few days remaining, look for him to continue to seek out votes as the best party to lead a government and not be forced into a coalition which Liberals and New Democrats have mused about. With leading Liberals now publicly speaking of a possible Conservative win, Scheer is trying to use their words against the other parties. It remains to be seen if the message can be delivered over the final weekend.
The Liberal party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, has also struggled in the campaign. As the incumbent majority government, the focus has been almost exclusively on the leader. The revelation that Trudeau dressed as “blackface” on more than one occasion appeared detrimental initially but after a short run seemed to become almost a non-issue, although has never gone away. Voters, however, may have strengthened their concerns about his true transparency. Across the country, the Liberals appear to be losing ground everywhere meaning that at best they can hope for a minority government. However, in Quebec, voters are turning to the Bloc Quebecois, at least for now, while they try and determine who can best represent them. The Liberal strategy to consolidate the progressive vote, as they did in 2015, has not been successful as many progressives remain disappointed with Trudeau’s record on issues such as the environment (buying the pipeline) and democratic reform. Trudeau’s status as ‘favorite son’ appears to be fading at just the wrong time for his party.
The final days:
It is now almost certain that the voters in Canada will be electing either a Liberal or Conservative minority government. Vote splits and the distribution of seats will ultimately affect the final outcome. The results in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec and particularly the suburbs of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver will ultimately determine the outcome.
Of concern will be who holds the balance of power among the other parties and/or what combination of those parties will be required to maintain power by the governing party. The recent rise of the Bloc Party in Quebec and the surge of the NDP is changing the scenario, making the outcome difficult to predict.
Look for the liberal and conservative leaders to focus on vote-rich Ontario over the last few days. It is also likely they may make a last dash to BC and into Quebec as the numbers begin to firm up in these regions. The NDP will also focus on Ontario and Quebec, especially in Toronto where they seem to be regaining some strength. The Greens will be staying on Vancouver Island, trying desperately to pick up a third seat, which will still leave them sitting in the House of Commons as an independent group.
Look for Canada to be back at the polls within a couple of years. Average minority governments do not last and this next one is likely to be very fractured, leading to an early election.
