Sponsored by: 

TSA is a leading Canadian government relations consulting firm that works clients range from Fortune 500 companies through municipal governments, start-ups, charitable organizations and associations like the Canadian Franchise Association.

To call this a debate is a misnomer

By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates

Statistically, most Canadians pay little attention to leaders' debates during an election and even fewer actually watch the entire broadcast. But those who do tune in, expect to gather some useful information. Last night’s debate only served to highlight how not to stage such an event and even had the air of a local high school debating club. There were no winners last night and the real losers were the viewers.

A few quick quips and very little policy, the English debate lacked the gravitas and substance seen in previous years. On the crowded stage, with six-party leaders, response time was limited to a matter of seconds. Including two marginal leaders from the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) and the Bloc Québécois, simply diluted the entire debate and added absolutely nothing. Likewise, five moderators, most with limited experience in such events, added to the paralysis of the debate making proper exchanges limited and continuity virtually impossible. 

This was Prime Minister’s Trudeau’s first time as the incumbent Prime Minister. His priority was to ensure voters realized that of the six leaders, only Andrew Scheer and himself have a chance of forming government, and that he was the only progressive option in that scenario. Trudeau tried to build a contrast to Scheer, but every time he attempted to present himself as a leader who took definitive action, Scheer and others would jump on him to challenge that claim.

Andrew Scheer knew that he needed to attack the Liberal leaders’ track record and present a different vision to governing. On several occasions Scheer took the opportunity to point out Trudeau’s hypocrisy on many issues, and painted Trudeau as a "fraud" who has lost the moral authority to govern.

When Trudeau exclaimed that Conservatives cannot be trusted on Indigenous issues, Scheer fired back that Trudeau kicked Jody Wilson-Raybould, the first justice minister of First Nations ancestry, out of the Liberal Caucus. Scheer needed to leave a mark on Trudeau and convince voters that he was out of touch and unfit to govern. He had modest success but Scheer himself had to defend against attacks from the other party leaders who were quick to raise concerns on Conservative policies.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, had targets set on both Trudeau and Scheer. Knowing that he needed to capture the attention of progressive voters, Singh took aim at Trudeau, while presenting himself as the true progressive alternative to Scheer. Labelling Trudeau and Scheer as “Mr. Delay, and Mr. Deny”, Singh had some success using the environment as a wedge issue to demonstrate the NDP’s alternative to the traditional governing parties.

If there was common ground in the debate, it was likely over the question on Bill 21 in Quebec (banning public servants from wearing religious symbols). With the exception of the Bloc leader, all leaders shied away by simply avoiding any clear position.

Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, had the least to lose knowing that any support her party could pull from any direction would boost her continual leadership of her party. Likely she did the most damage to Trudeau as she challenged his record on the environment, an issue key to the Liberal’s re-election plan.

Voters that watched this debate probably left with more comments about the format, the moderators and the inclusion of fringe party leaders rather than about the substance of the debate.

Singh might see a slight bump from his performance. Scheer too delivered a couple of strong lines while Trudeau looked bewildered at times and focused on his standard rebuttal lines as he was the only one on stage that had to defend a record.

In the end, the debate is unlikely to have any real impact on the election outcome, with only a few bumps and no knockout punches.

However, the line of the night had to belong to Andrew Scheer, who picked up on Trudeau’s constant attacks on provincial conservative premiers. "You seem to be oddly obsessed with provincial politics. There is a vacancy for the Ontario Liberal leadership, and if you are so focused on provincial politics go and run for the leadership of that party Mr. Trudeau."

 

Latest Polling

Conservative 

33.9%

Seat Projection: 139 (94-186)

Liberal 

34.3%

Seat Projection: 153 (94-186)

New Democrat

14.2%

Seat Projection: 20 (2-45)

Green 
Bloc Quebecois
People's Party

9.1%

Seat Projection: 4 (1-7)

5.6%

Seat Projection: 21 (8-36)

2.0%

Seat Projection: 1 (0-1)

* 170 seats are needed for a majority government

(Source: CBC: Canada Votes 2019 Poll Tracker

Polling Analysis

The Liberals and Conservatives remain virtually tied in national polling, but the Liberals' have held on to their seat advantage. A minority government (Liberal or Conservative) is more likely than a Liberal majority. The New Democrats are ticking up and away from the Greens, while the Bloc Québécois has improved its position since the beginning of the campaign.

National polling numbers are a bit deceiving because of where different parties are strong and where they are weak. In 2015, the Conservatives won 44 of the 62 seats in Alberta and the Prairies. In 2019 the Conservatives are 40 points ahead of the Liberals in Alberta and 22 points ahead in the Prairies. While that is an impressive lead that may only translate into 12 additional seats. In contrast the Conservatives are 4 points back of the Liberals in Ontario but because of where their support is the Conservatives could win an additional 9 seats in Ontario and the Liberals could lose 8 seats. In Quebec, the Liberals could win 2 additional seats and a resurgent Bloc Quebecois is tracking to win 20+ seats (up 11 from 2015). This resurgence is coming at the expense of the NDP who could be reduced to 2 seats in the province.

Odds of Winning 

| 28% - Probability of the Liberals winning a majority
| 33% - Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats but not a majority
| 28% - Probability of the Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority
| 9% - Probability of the Conservatives winning a majority

Why winning the most seats doesn’t always mean winning the election

Pollsters are saying this election could be a close one. So what happens if no party wins a majority of seats? Here’s a civics lesson. By Steve Paikin, TVO – Published on Oct 07, 2019

Advance polls are open this weekend

Vote at your assigned polling station from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. on:

  • Friday, October 11
  • Saturday, October 12
  • Sunday, October 13
  • Monday, October 14

To find your advance polling station, check your voter information card or use the Voter Information Service.

Did Monday's debate help you decide who you are going to vote for?

After responding, if you need to make a change, click here.

For more information on the CFA’s 2019 federal election strategy and activities please contact:

David M. Black
Director, Government Relations and Public Policy
Canadian Franchise Association

T:  416-695-2896 ext. 297
E: dblack@cfa.ca