Halfway through........
By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates
Monday marked the halfway point of the 2019 election campaign. Political leaders, candidates and their strategists are digging deep to capture the attention of voters. The Liberals and Conservatives remain in a statistical deadlock, and will be targeting the focus of their campaign strategies on ridings needed to win.
For example, the vote rich 905 region around Toronto has been and will continue to be a destination of announcements and photo ops. In fact, and as quoted in an article by Laura Stone in yesterday’s Globe and Mail: “The 905 was key to Stephen Harper’s majority victory in 2011, and Justin Trudeau’s in 2015, … in every election but one since Pierre Trudeau became prime minister, the suburban ridings surrounding Toronto have voted for the party that formed government.” The Liberals and Conservatives know that that they need to secure the ridings in the 905 and need to ensure that their policy platforms speak directly to voters in the diverse communities in this region. 
Renewing their focus on family friendly policies on health care, post-secondary education, environment and community safety, the Liberals released their campaign platform this past weekend. More than 48 new measures, topping nearly $57-billion in “investments” aimed at “helping make life more affordable for the middle class and those struggling to get by.”
The Liberals unleashed an aggressive spending agenda to secure all the support they can from anyone who doesn’t track the growing national deficit. In fact, the Liberal spending plan forecasts nearly a doubling of current deficits in four years, from what the Parliamentary Budget Officer projected this spring to be a $11.2 billion deficit by 2023-2024 to a now $21 billion deficit — with no plan to return to a balanced budget.
For their part, Andrew Scheer and his Conservative Party have also unveiled a number of policy proposals to connect with “average families.” In the form of tax credits for youth sports enrollments and access to transit, the Conservatives are looking to reduce the cost burden on Canadians in the hope of contrasting with the Liberal tax and spend mantra.
To date, the Conservatives are the only major party to not release its full party platform, although this is expected to come before the English debate on October 7th. Sheer’s personal numbers have grown slowly to the point that today marks the first time in the Nanos overnight polling that Scheer is now the “Preferred Prime Minister” choice, marginally ahead of Justin Trudeau. His challenge now is to maintain the lead. 
Look for Scheer to return to Ontario a number of times over the second half of the election, focusing almost entirely on the vote-rich 905 region.
NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, began his political career in the 905 area of Brampton as a provincial politician. In fact, he oddly began his federal campaign with the announcement of building a new hospital there – odd because this is something that falls under provincial jurisdiction.
The anticipated support for the NDP has failed to materialize, with their only bump in the polls being related to Singh’s comments on the Trudeau “blackface” appearances. Singh has spent the past week in British Colombia and has quickly lost the attention of the media and voters. Singh’s platform has not captured the attention of voters, and his party’s struggling to hold on to support in the ridings of their incumbents. Currently, the NDP is polling under 6% in Peel Region. Singh will likely return to Ontario with a focus on holding on to as many seats as possible in Toronto and the surrounding 905.
As we enter the second half of the campaign, expect heightened strategic messaging and very calculated appearances by the party leaders in specific regions of the country. The upcoming national debates in English (Oct. 7) and French (Oct. 10) could serve as a turning point for any of the parties if their leaders manage to separate their performance from the pack. But with 6 people on stage, it is unlikely the debates will do much to change the polling numbers.
The Party’s now need to be focused to get their message out – look for new ads and new attacks in the days ahead to October 21st.
