Restaurants Canada Releases 2021-2025 Long Term Forecast
Commercial foodservice sales in Canada are forecast to improve to $61.4 billion in 2021. This represents an 11.8% increase compared to 2020 but still remains 20% below pre-COVID-19 levels.
In the first quarter of 2021, sales were expected to remain weak due to containment measures across the country. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, sales are forecast to be $13.0 billion in Q1 2021, relatively unchanged from Q4 2020. In terms of percentage change, Q1 2021 sales would remain 31% lower than Q1 2019.
Commercial foodservice sales in Canada are forecast to improve modestly in Q2 2021, up to $14.6 billion. Although this represents a 45% increase over Q2 2020, sales would still be 24% below Q2 2019 levels. As more people are vaccinated and containment measures are lifted, foodservice sales are forecast to climb in Q3 2021 to $16.2 billion. With most Canadians vaccinated and as life slowly returns to normal, commercial foodservice sales are forecast to climb to $17.1 billion in Q4.
In 2022, commercial foodservice sales in Canada are forecast to grow to $74.6 billion. This will represent a 21% increase over 2021 but will remain 3% below 2019 levels.
In 2023, the commercial foodservice industry is forecast to grow by 5% to $78.6 billion. This will be the first year that foodservice sales will be higher than 2019 levels, as we will see improved spending at restaurants, caterers and drinking places by households, businesses and tourists.
By 2025, commercial foodservice sales are forecast to grow to $84.6 billion.
In order to forecast foodservice sales, Restaurants Canada relies on a series of econometric models. Based on historical and projected data from the Conference Board of Canada, these models include real GDP, total consumer spending, population growth and other economic indicators. In addition to economic factors, foodservice sales are strongly influenced by historical spending habits. While economic conditions remain a vital influence on foodservice spending, Restaurants Canada’s forecasting models have been updated to factor in the repercussions of COVID-19.